As told to Gern Blanston
The Patriots' Prognosticators are a bunch of homers...
Well,
kind of, considering that only two of the four actually line in New
England - but the fact remains that all four - Randy, Sara, Scott and
Mike - chose their beloved Patriots to win the AFC East for the eighth
consecutive season, despite incessant claims from the fans of the
Buffalo Bills, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins that 2016 is going to
THEIR year to supplant the hated Patriots as kings of the east.
But
in an effort to drag these folks out of their closely cropped comfort
zone that most die hard Patriots' fans envelop themselves in, we tasked
them to think outside the box.
The Patriots' Prognosticators
is a social media group on Facebook, the aforementioned administrators
of the group putting together their predictions for all divisions in the
National Football League at the start of each season, and again before
each week's games commence - which is key because all of them would
agree that they are football fans, not just Patriots' fans.
Sara
lives in Chicago Bears' country while Scott reports from Ravens'
territory, adding to the already eclectic mix of Maine transplant Mike,
who hails from Utah and was forced to endure Denver Broncos broadcasts
growing up, and Randy, who is from the Foxborough area and now resides
in the weird little state of New Hampshire.
The group
itself promotes fandom on several different levels and from many
different cultures and promotes to it's members that to know the sport
of football is to eschew what the paid hacks have to say, and to
investigate this great sport for themselves. Football is going
increasingly international and The Patriots' Prognosticators are one of
only a handful of Facebook groups that cater to the language and
knowledge barriers.
Not that there isn't a button to translate entire pages of text, but that's not what this is about.
Football
is a language all it's own. It knows no boundaries, it's not even
territorial except on the field of play - the terminology it conveys is
based on it's action, and the often-times funky rules all come with hand
signals and yellow flags - in fact, compared to most sports, football
has an excessive number of rules and it's commissioner is a narcissistic
blowhard that would suspend his own mother if she served him cold
vichyssoise...
...but vichyssoise is meant to be served
cold, and football was meant to be played in cold weather, lest it
would be a summer sport, no? Domed stadiums are a uniquely American
ideal, so thank goodness that the Prognosticators - heretofore referred
to as "Progs" - are fans of a team that plays in the elements and enjoys a
homefield advantage in the dead of winter, as Foxborough can be a
terribly cold place to have a game of anything.
In
fact, Patriots' fans everywhere can rejoice on this front, as their
opening night contest against the Arizona Cardinals is the only game on
their docket scheduled to be played in a domed stadium, and even then,
the roof is retractable, and a day in the nineties could give way to an
evening in the seventies, a perfect occasion to open the roof in
Glendale.
And, yes. This incessant rambling. But it
can't be helped because football season is finally here - a time when
every team is tied for their division lead and all teams have hope,
misguided and desperate as that hope may be...
AFC East: New England Patriots (Consensus)
Confidence
abounds with all members, with Sara predicting a 13-3 season and Scott
brashly stating that, "Brady could be suspended for all 16 games and the
Patriots would still win the division." - and Scott certainly has the
2008 season to fall back on as far as a Patriots' team producing a
winning record, but the fact remains that Brady will be back in week
five.
The saving grace in this scenario is that the NFL
schedule makers did the Patriots a huge solid by scheduling three of
their first four games at home, and all of those games against teams
that they should be able to beat, Brady or no. In these games, both
Sara and Scott share the same mindset in spotting Brady a 3-1 record,
while Randy and Mike are being a bit more cautious...
...knowing
that the Texans are a wildcard in that their offense is largely an
unknown at this point, though they dominated in the preseason, and that
division games are never a given, so games against Buffalo and Miami are
no gimme's, as their 2-2 outlook suggests.
Analysis:
There's not an easy game in the batch. The Cardinals are the
preemptive favorites to win the NFC title that they practically handed
to Carolina last January, as Arizona is prone to a stinker every now and
then, and tend to collapse in big games, while the Texans are a
relatively unknown quantity on offense, but all indications are that
they are high-octane and capable of scoring in bunches.
Nothing need be said about facing a division rival, as the Bills and
Dolphins will bring everything they have, as a win against New England
in this circumstance is solid gold in tie-breaking circles, and
since both games are at Foxborough, a win also makes the odds of a
season sweep go up incrementally when the Patriots have to travel to
their digs later in the season.
These four games to start the season could have far-reaching impact in the division race.
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers (Majority)
The
Pittsburgh Steelers have the majority vote from the Progs, but the
Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens have procured votes as well.
The
Steelers are perennial favorites in this division, and it would
surprise no one if they actually did clinch the division, while
Cincinnati has laid claim to a title or two in the past half dozen
seasons, as has Baltimore. It seems that the only thing the Progs can
agree upon is the already universal decree that anything the Cleveland
Browns touch turns to mud.
The
reasoning behind the picks are varied. For instance, Scott chose
the Bengals to win the division because of what he claims is their
consistency, but also goes on to admit that this could be the most
competitive division in all of football, while Randy chose a close race
between The Steelers and the Ravens, with Pittsburgh nosing out the
birds - Sara went with Pittsburgh as well, while Mike selected the
Ravens, though it made him whimper like a lost puppy to do so...
Analysis:
The NFC North is always a Persian bazaar - lots of loud and obnoxious
barkers that draw the crowds in with promises of a quality product, but
it's always a crap shoot as to whether they deliver or not.
The lone entity from last season who could absolutely upset the apple
carts in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are the Baltimore Ravens. I selected
the Ravens to win the division based on their performance last season,
which saw them lose eleven games, but only three of those by more than
five points...
...this despite the fact
that their offense was in shambles from the very start with debilitating
injuries. including losing quarterback Joe Flacco to an ACL for almost
half of the season. Things got so bad that they actually brought in and
started former Patriot Ryan Mallett.
AFC South: Indianapolis (Majority)
Surprisingly,
the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars got no love from anyone, while the hot
and cold Indianapolis Colts and their weird participation trophy
mentality took the majority decision.
The only
dissenting vote coming from Mike, who likes the Houston Texans to take
this, the flakiest of all divisions - based on the fact that he hates
the Colts with all of his being, and also that they managed a winning
record and a playoff berth despite starting four different quarterbacks,
including the aforementioned Mallett and his New England sidekick Brian
Hoyer. Throw the insufferable Brandon Weeden into that mix and you have
a recipe for mediocrity...
...yet
they ended up winning the division, albeit with a mediocre record. The
reason? A stout defense that ranked third in the league and limited six
of their opponents to single-digits in scoring. The one unknown for
them is how new quarterback Brock Osweiller performs once the games
start to count - so based on the unknown alone, the Colts win by
default.
Analysis: Don't be surprised to see
the Tennessee Titans make some noise. They have a devastating running
game that could be all about chewing clock and keeping scores low. With
the right adjustments on defense, they could nose their way into the
picture. That said, this division could go sideways at any moment.
Jacksonville is right on the cusp of something proper and could very
well sneak into wildcard consideration. The point being that every team
in this division did things to improve themselves immensely in the
offseason, all except for Indianapolis who returns, essentially, the
same team that embarrassed themselves in 2015.
AFC West: Oakland Raiders (Majority)
With
a killer defense and a vastly improving offense, the Oakland Raiders
are the trendy pick to win the AFC West in 2016 - but two of our Progs
aren't buying it.
Sara is sticking with the world
champion Denver Broncos (Ouch, that freaking hurts to write) regardless
of their dicey quarterback situation - any quarterback competition that
involves Mark Sanchez has one strike against it already - but he's been
sliced out of the picture, losing out to rookie and a second-year
unknown.
Randy and Scott are all about the Silver and Black.
Mike
is being a fence sitter and calling on the Kansas City Chiefs to grasp
the golden ring due to them being the most consistent of the four teams
in the division
Analysis: there are seasons
when division titles are won by teams who just stay the course and are
the most consistent, and in the AFC West, it looks like this kind of
season. Denver lost both of their starting quarterbacks from 2015, as
Peyton Manning retired on active duty and his heir apparent gave Gary
Kubiak the finger for benching him late in the season when he was
clearly the top option at the position...
...but they weren't very good on offense with either guy down the
stretch - none of their playmakers made enough plays to overcome the
mediocrity and so Denver simply rode their defense to a world title.
Oakland is improved and may be the one team that could match them
physically, while San Diego is busy making their offseason plans
already.
That leaves Kansas City, who didn't do much of anything in the
offseason, choosing to stay the company line with a team that nearly
edged out the Broncos for the division.
NFC East: New York Giants (Majority)
The only one of the division races that we had to bring in a private arbitrator to settle the issue.
According
to Article 46 of the Patriots' Prognosticators Collective Bitching
Agreement, an independent arbitrator is to be called upon in the event
of a deadlock, so the Progs called in former member Jack Lavoie, who is
also a native New Englander - and it just so happens that he despises
the Giants just as much as the rest of them...
...which
is neither here nor there, as Jack is proper and fair and wouldn't
think of diluting the reputation of the page by letting his heart get in
the way of his good sense.
That said, the freaking Giants, Jack?
"I
don't like any of the teams." Jack said upon being contacted to break a
tie between the Giants and Dallas Cowboys. "but if I had break the tie I
would go with the New York Football Giants. Defense should be better
(but not great) and having a new coach often gives a team a bump in year
one."
He continued rambling until we muted the
messaging, but not before he mentioned that he thought it would come
down to a tie breaker for the division title, with both New York and
Dallas at 9-7.
Analysis: Watching the
teams in this division play has to be frustrating for their fans, as it
seems each week the individual squads do everything that they can to
throw away their chances of winning a division title, and when one
finally does win it, their exit from the postseason is exacerbated by
foolishness.
Except for the Giants, for
reasons we can't get into here, as it seems that they sandbag their way
through the regular season, then pour it on in the postseason. For this
very reason, Jack may be right when he selected the Giants to win the
division - combined with the fact that the Eagles haven't been relevant
since Dick Vermiel and the Redskins won the division last season purely
by default, his choice is perhaps the wisest...
...though
if rookie sensation - in the preseason, anyway - Dak Prescott turns out
to be the real deal and does a "Brady" to Tony Romo's "Bledsoe", the
Cowboys have more than enough on the offensive side of the ball to take
the shirts and caps.
NFC North: Green Bay Packers (Majority)
Mike flat refuses to vote for the Packers, while the rest of the crew are all on board with the Cheeseheads.
"All
you have to do is look at the Patriots from last season to form a
baseline on the Packers" he said "The Patriots lost five core offensive
skill position players in the space of six weeks, and still came within
two points of going to the Super Bowl, the Packers lost Jordy Nelson and
folded like a cheap tent."
Indeed, but now Nelson is
back and Mike's pick of the Minnesota Vikings seems tenuous at best with
the loss of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater for the season, but he feels
that their running game and defense can carry the team to a title,
particularly if they find a veteran quarterback that can manage games
for them - and there were reports that Vikings management would be
willing to spend whatever it takes to get a competent starter in house,
be it by trade or luck...
...and
sure enough, they shelled out first round draft capital to Philadelphia
for the fragile and moody Sam Bradford. Hey, it could have been Mark
Sanchez...
Analysis: The Packers have
been the steadiest of all the teams in the division over the past
several seasons, pretty much because the other three teams can't seem to
get out of their own way - but make no mistake, the Vikings are for
real.
They may have lost their starting
quarterback, but there may not be another team in the league set up to
absorb the loss of their signal caller than Minnesota, what with their
top five running attack coupled with their top five defense, the recipe
is there for Minnesota to engage in low-scoring, grind-it-out football,
typical of the North.
The Packers have
the same setup, except that their defense was atrocious last season and
they really did nothing to remedy that. That said, it's a two-team race
in this division, and it could come down to whether Bradford ever
becomes the quarterback everyone thought he was coming out of college.
NFC South: Carolina Panthers (Consensus)
The Panthers are the choice, purely by default in the league's most boring division.
Yes,
boring. Filled with perennial losers, there always seems to be a team
that rises up and runs away with the south, and for the past three
seasons, that team has been the Panthers - and to understand just how
bad the rest of the teams have been in that time span, only the 2013 New
Orleans Saints have finished above .500...
...so boring in fact, that I'm done talking about this division. We're onto the NFC West.
Analysis: The
NFC South has had just Two world champions in the history of all the
division's franchises. Time was, the Falcons and Saints served in the
NFC West, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was member of the AFC West as an
expansion team and joined the old NFC Central the following season.
So
what? Yeah, so what. All except the Panthers have been perennial
losers, with the Falcons never being quite good enough, the Bucs setting
records for mediocrity since their inception and the fans of the Saints
wearing paper bags on their heads with the word "Aints" emblazoned
across the front - curiously, however, each has been to a Super Bowl,
but none in the past seven seasons.
The
Panthers had their shot against a wounded Broncos team last February,
but the Panther offense limped off into the hills to die a nationally
televised death, getting stomped by the feisty Denver defense. It
remains to be seen what effect that game will have on quarterback Cam
Newton and, truth be told, he looked horrible in the preseason.
Good thing for the Panthers that they play in the worst division in professional football...
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals (Majority)
Sara continues to be the odd-man out out west. Even though she's a chick.
Previously,
we've seen her stick with the defending Super Bowl Champion Denver
Broncos in the AFC, and now she sticks to her antics by selecting the
Seattle Seahawks as her projected NFC West division champions.
Lord
knows she has history to fall back on and the fellas don't, so she
brings a measure of common sense to testosterone alley, claiming that
those flying rats will take a division that promises to be entertaining,
if nothing else, as the Rams have returned to their (secondary) roots
in Los Angeles and the 49ers have Chip Kelly and a quarterback who is a
better loose cannon than an actual quarterback...
...and
then, there are the two teams that each have a legitimate chance to
take the division. The Cardinals or Seahawks have taken the division
title ten out of the last dozen seasons, with the Seahawks holding an
edge in that department 7-3.
In fairness, all of the
Progs had a difficult time with this one, and all of them had both of
the teams making the playoffs, either as division champions or as a
wildcard. It really should be that close.
Analysis:
The Cardinals are now the odds-on favorites to represent the NFC in the
Super Bowl, but that's going to take some doing, as first they have to
get past the violent Seahawks just to win the division, then hope and
pray that Carson Palmer shows up for the playoffs, as he has a tendency
to disappear in the biggest of moments.
The
Seahwaks, on the other hand, are battle-hardened and are finally
healthy after a dismal season on the injury front last season that saw
them lose their top two offensive weapons for the majority of the
season. It's no wonder that the Progs all had a tough time with this
division.
