Sunday, December 11, 2016

2016 Divisonal Predictions Revisited - Progs Mostly Accurate

Entering the final quarter of the 2016 NFL season, and especially on a Sunday when our New England Patriots are preparing for a Monday night contest against the hated Baltimore Ravens, it is as good a time as ever to revisit the Patriots Prognosticator's Divisional predictions, offered up by the Progs themselves before the season started.

As always, these predictions can be taken as a "glass half empty" negative context when critiquing these picks, but with the accuracy displayed by the group, it should most assuredly be taken as the polar opposite, "glass mostly full" display of positive reinforcement.
With Dion Lewis back, the Patriots are enroute to another first round bye

The only real egg laid consisted of everyone in the entire civilized world and Canada believing that the Carolina Panthers were going to run away with the NFC South, and while the 4-8 Panthers still have hope for the division title, the pathway is narrow, being behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons by three games, with four to play.

In all of the other divisions, well, you'll see when you browse through...

AFC East: all Progs selected the New England Patriots to cruise through the division, and while the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills are still alive, it would take a complete Patriots' collapse for either of these other teams to be donning hats and shirts.

AFC North: Before the season started, we offered "The AFC North is always a Persian bazaar - lots of loud and obnoxious barkers that draw the crowds in with promises of a quality product, but it's always a crap shoot as to whether they deliver or not.". That certainly has been the case again in 2016.

This division is still a tossup between the Pittsburgh Steelers, who Randy and Sara picked, the Baltimore Ravens who Mike picked, and the complete disaster of the Cincinnati Bengals whom Scott picked. At press time, the Steelers and Ravens were tied for the division lead, with the latter having the tie-breaker between the two. But despite their horrific start, the Bengals are hanging in there with a 4-7-1 record, two-and-a-half games back of the other two, with games left against both.

Don't count them - or Scott - out...

AFC South: "Don't be surprised to see the Tennessee Titans make some noise.  They have a devastating running game that could be all about chewing clock and keeping scores low.  With the right adjustments on defense, they could nose their way into the picture.  That said, this division could go sideways at any moment."

And go sideways it has. The Titans have clawed their way into a three-way tie atop the squirrel-fest that is the AFC South, with Indianapolis (Randy, Sara, Scott) and Houston (Mike) stumbling and bumbling their way to identical 6-6 records. Tennessee has the easiest path to the title in a division that could come down to the final game, which will find the Titans hosting the Texans for the lone playoff berth coming out of the South.

AFC West: Three playoff berths could come from the AFC West, though the Broncos (picked by Sara) appear to be on the big slide to the golf course. The Oakland Raiders were the trendy pick and could still come away with the division title, but will have to clear the Kansas City Chiefs by a full game to come away champs.

True to the prediction, "there are seasons when division titles are won by teams who just stay the course and are the most consistent, and in the AFC West, it looks like this kind of season." west is being led by a Chiefs' team that stayed the course, didn't do anything really fancy, and have been the most consistent.

You can also look for whoever eventually wins the division to have one of the top two seeds in the conference, along with the coveted first-round bye.

NFC East: Really, Jack? Really?

We asked former-Prog and resident confidant Jack Lavoi to break the only tie in the division predictions, this between the Dallas Cowboys (Scott, Mike) and the New York Giants (Sara, Randy), and Jack picked the Giants...

...and while the Giants look primed for a playoff berth - and perhaps their seemingly normal sandbagging run through the field for a Super Bowl berth - the Cowboys turned out to be the class of the division, even with a rookie quarterback, for whom we predicted: "if rookie sensation - in the preseason, anyway - Dak Prescott turns out to be the real deal and does a "Brady" to Tony Romo's "Bledsoe", the Cowboys have more than enough on the offensive side of the ball to take the shirts and caps."

In reality, the Cowboys have already clinched a playoff berth with an 11-1 record, but the division is still up for grabs with the Giants three games back. New York could cut into that Cowboy lead by beating Dallas on Sunday, and then would have an easier schedule down the stretch.

So we will wait until things are settled before giving Jack a bunch of crap.

NFC North: "The Packers have been the steadiest of all the teams in the division over the past several seasons, pretty much because the other three teams can't seem to get out of their own way - but make no mistake, the Vikings are for real."

Well, no one gave the Detroit Lions any love, and for the first time in this century, they may actually win this division.

The Lions hold a two-game lead over both Minnesota (Mike) and Green Bay (Randy, Sara, Scott), but have an absolutely brutal schedule down the stretch, having to go to both New York and Dallas before hosting Green Bay for what could be for the division crown, while the Packers don't have it any easier, hosting Seattle and then playing three straight division games.

The Vikings have a decent shot of sneaking up behind these two to take the division, having only division games against Chicago and Green Bay left on their schedule, then playing the scourge of the AFC South in Indianapolis and Jacksonville.  If Minnesota can win out, the other two teams could certainly stumble, but right now, it's Detroit's division to lose.

NFC South: "The Panthers had their shot against a wounded Broncos team last February, but the Panther offense limped off into the hills to die a nationally televised death, getting stomped by the feisty Denver defense.  It remains to be seen what effect that game will have on quarterback Cam Newton and, truth be told, he looked horrible in the preseason. Good thing for the Panthers that they play in the worst division in professional football..."

And, yes.

The Panthers took a nose dive of epic proportions to wind up the most disappointing team in all of football. There are as many excuses as people to offer them, but the fact remains that all of the Progs picked the Panthers to run away with this division, and they're not even close.

NFC West: "The Seahawks are battle-hardened and are finally healthy after a dismal season on the injury front last season that saw them lose their top two offensive weapons for the majority of the season.  It's no wonder that the Progs all had a tough time with this division."

Sara is the only Prog that selected the Seahawks to win the NFC West, and they are going to win it by a large margin. The disappointing Cardinals still have a shot, thanks to producing a tie against the Seahawks earlier in the season, but they have to win out against the Dolphins, Saints, Seahawks and Rams while hoping that Seattle loses at least three of their last four.

Can't see that happening, but what do I know?  I picked the Cardinals!

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